Many New Zealanders were taken aback at the recent announcement of the inclusion of an Auckland gunshot victim in the COVID-19 death tally. This is however not a new practice and has been the standard for many countries around the world since early 2020. The Daily Examiner’s Victoria O’Brien summarises the situation in NZ and took a look at figures from the US & Italy for an idea of the impact of this practice.

The NZ mainstream news media reported on 11 November 2021 that Ministry of Health guidelines for reporting covid deaths included all those who had merely tested positive, regardless of the actual cause of death.

Indeed, the MoH website explains this in its “Definitions” section for covid statistics.

The statement in the media report was qualified to explain that the actual cause of death would later be determined and the tallies updated to show those who had passed away “with covid” versus “from covid”.

This explanation seemed to satisfy many, except that on 15 November 2021, the same mainstream media went on to promote the initial figures. In fact, it would appear that only the “initial” tallies are being widely used in mainstream media and government communications, despite the acknowledgement that the actual figures are different. Note that the following screenshot shows the tally for NZ as 33, which includes the gunshot victim already mentioned. Also included is a vehicle accident trauma victim, who passed away a few days prior.

In an isolated country with a small population such as New Zealand, where the headline tally of deaths from covid is still in the double-digits and violent deaths are similarly of a relatively lower number, it is easy to see when the numbers are “with” rather than “from”.

US

When the same methodology is applied to countries like the US, with a population of well over 330 million, the difference in numbers of those who died “with” rather than “from” become much greater.

Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (cdc.gov) from 1 January 2020 to 6 November 2021, there were 752,864 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The CDC commentary states, “For over 5% of these deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned on the death certificate. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 4.0 additional conditions or causes per death.”

For example, cancer was also mentioned for 5% (35,778), “Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning, and other adverse events” were mentioned for 2% (15,728) and chronic lower respiratory diseases were mentioned for 9% (64,770). By far the largest additional mention on death certificates was “Influenza and pneumonia”, in 48% (364,898) of deaths.

The data table does not show where COVID-19 was the only cause on the death certificate. Using the CDC’s commentary, a figure of no more than 45,171 (6%) can be deduced. Translated to a per 100,000 population rate gives 13.5. This is far lower than the headline figure.

For comparison, the CDC states that there were 49,783 deaths from influenza and pneumonia in 2019, approximately 15.2 per 100,000 population.

Italy

In a report published on 5 October, the Italian Ministry of Health or ISS reported that analysis of a sample of reported COVID-19 deaths, where data was available, revealed that 67.7% had 3 or more additional causes of death, or comorbidities. 2.9% had only COVID-19 as the cause of death.

It is important to note that respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia are commonly the “last straw” for many already vulnerable people. Such illnesses exacerbate underlying conditions or are simply unable to be overcome where immune systems are impaired by disease or age. The dangers of contracting such diseases should not be underestimated. On the other hand, where the cause of death is clearly from other causes, those should not be included either.

Sources:
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_5_october_2021.pdf