Over 20% More Deaths In NZ & Australia Vs 2015-2019

Excess deaths in NZ from all causes is presently running at approximately 22%, for data available to mid-May. At this rate, this means for the 2022 calendar year, the country may expect to have around 7,700 more deaths than normal. This observation is matched by that of Australia, which has published an excess death rate of 20.5% to the end of February.

“Excess deaths” is the term that is applied to “the difference between the observed number of deaths in a specified time period and the expected numbers of deaths in that same time period” (source: Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS). The comparison period 2015-2019 is used by both the ABS and public data sites such as “Our World In Data”. The reason a 5-yr comparison period is used that excludes 2020, is for comparison with a “normal” year where human activity including social and travel, was unaffected by border closures and social isolation.

The chart above shows significant weekly fluctuations for the data, as is expected. The data plot shows an approximately sinusoidal variance around the baseline for 2020, then picks up above the baseline from 2021. The chart below shows the period from January 2021 to the present.

For 2021, NZ recorded 34,932 deaths. This was 6.7% over the average for the 2015-2019 years which accords with what is shown in the chart above. This increase cannot be attributed to COVID-19 as the cumulative number of people who died with the virus numbered fewer than 10 by the end of 2021.

This is matched by what is also being reported for Australia. The ABS publishes detailed mortality data periodically and published its statistics for the first 2 months of the year in late-May. It states that “there were 29,685 deaths that occurred by 28 February and were registered by 30 April, which is 5,052 (20.5%) more than the historical average.” The ABS also stated that “COVID-19 was the fourth most common cause of death certified by a doctor in February following cancer, dementia and ischaemic heart diseases.”

The charts show the 12-month period to the end of February 2022.

Notably, while deaths attributed to covid (2,521) account for almost exactly 50% of the excess deaths for January & February this year, that is not the case for 2021. There was a total of 1,172 deaths attributed to covid in Australia for 2021, almost entirely from August 2021 onwards. The actual number of deaths were however higher than the comparison range for much of the year.

The Daily Examiner has spoken to several participants in the NZ funeral home industry regarding their observations of industry activity in the last year. To preserve their anonymity, their observations have been aggregated. All of those spoken to expressed their concerns of censure by Government agencies (such as losing coronial contracts) or professional registration bodies, or loss of employment, should their identities be revealed.

Their observations are chilling.

  • In comparison to activity levels from a year ago, these participants are seeing a significant increase of anywhere between 20%-40%, depending on location and period. Numbers of clients that used to belong to “busy weeks” have now become the norm.
  • Some have reported seeing a doubling in the number of younger clients (30-50 yrs) being seen, mostly due to heart issues or cancer.
  • Some have reported seeing “surges” in numbers, particularly in the weeks following mass vaccination events at local resthomes.

One of these participants noted that the number of obituary announcements in newspapers is not reflective of the true increase. This is because of many families opting for “direct cremations”, which has become more common as a result of covid restrictions. This option means there is no funeral held and no announcement in the newspaper.

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